That was the question that Martin H. Kim, Director of Regional Planned, posed to the Kettering City Council Feb. 23.
Studying urbanization trends, Kim predicted a future of demographic decline and uneven development.
Kim stated that, in 1970, Dayton's urban population was 606,549 and the total amount of urbanized area was 185.9 square miles.
The total population density in that urbanized area was 3,263 population per square mile. In 2000, Dayton's urban population was 723,955 and the total amount of urbanized area was 327.6 square miles.
The total population density in that urbanized area was 2,209 population per square mile, which represented a 1,054 decline from the year 1970. Kim explained that this decline has led to a disproportion between the region's population and land usage.
"We are using more and more land per capita," Kim said. "The population grew, but the rate of growth was lower than the physical expansion of the urban area. In other words, the land consumption per capita increased between 1970 and 2000."
Kim stated that, if these urbanization trends hold sway, Dayton's population density in 2030 will only amount to 1,291 population per square mile. Simultaneously, urbanized area will have grown to 531.1 square miles. According to Kim, commercial development will probably constitute a sizable portion of this larger urban area, as is evidenced by the 150 percent increase in commercial land use between 1970 and 2000. Thus, projected land use, particularly commercial development, will exceed the needs of the population.
According to Kim, Dayton's demographic decline means a thinner tax base for larger areas. In turn, this thinner tax base will affect the quality of life and economic prosperity of the Dayton region. The effects include: Higher infrastructure and service delivery costs. Longer commutes. Less open space and farmland. Longer police, EMT, and fire runs. Spending more money on gas.
Synopsizing the impact of Dayton's demographic decline on the quality of life within the region, Kim stated,
"The development pattern can be described as a thinning out of the tax base due to outmigration of populations and jobs that once occupied larger areas. Now one of the concerns of this pattern of development is that local government is experiencing difficulty in its efforts to provide the same level of quality with its services."
To meet the challenges presented to the region by this uneven development, the Miami Valley Regional Planning Commission has established the "Going Places" initiative.
Distilling the overall mission of the "Going Places" program, Kim said, "This is a four-year region-based land use planning initiative designed to bring people living and working in the region together to build a clear and shared future land use framework that will guide us to make this region a better place to live, work, and play."
The planning process of the "Going Places" initiative encompasses three phases. Phase One is the Existing Condition Assessment phase, which has already been completed. According to Kim, the Existing Condition Assessment found that "the region is in the process of a demographic and economic shift." The symptoms of this shift include:An aging population and a decrease in the size of households.A shift in the region from a production-based economy to a service-based economy.The stagnation of household incomes.An increase in the number of households who pay more than 30 percent of their income on housing-related costs.
Kim stated that, ultimately, the assessment concluded that land development has not been tied to population changes. Between 1970 and 2000, population in the region remained relatively stable while total developed land in the region increased by 44.6 percent.
"Geographically, development has been uneven and development has been shifting among land use types," Kim said.
Indeed, land use has shifted within the region considerably between 1975 and 2000. Residential land use increased 36.3 percent. Industrial land use increased 22 percent. And, of course, commercial land use increased 148.1 percent. Meanwhile, agricultural/open space land use declined 9.3 percent.
"The region contains varying degrees of potential for future land development," Kim said. "Not all of our land is equal in terms of development potential. The majority of land suitable for development is within existing urban areas."
According to Kim, a moderate amount of additional developed land will be required if current development trends continue. These future development needs can be met in developable areas outside existing urban areas, developable areas in existing urban areas, or a combination of both. Kim stated that the region will benefit based on two conditions:Development is formulated and implemented in a fashion that makes use of existing infrastructure before paying for new construction.Development taps the region's natural resources without imperiling environmental stability.
With the completion of the Existing Condition Assessment, the "Going Places" initiative is now focusing on phase two of its program: Future Landscape Exploration. The objective of this phase is the development of future land use themes and scenarios.
Kim urged residents to join one of the initiative's 17 community-based workshops throughout the Miami Valley. The next workshop in the Kettering/Oakwood area will be held at the Fairmont High School Commons Area at 3301 Shroyer Rd. It will run from 6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. on Thursday, March 18. Readers can learn more about the "Going Places" initiative by visiting www.mvrpc.org/rlu.
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